Sunday, February 03, 2008

44. Old paper by Baudrit, Couso and Dubois

Hybrid methods for uncertainty modelling are in their infancy. I suspect we might be missing a whole layer of deeper concepts underlying the familiar notions of probability, possibility, etcetera.

The near future, hierarchical Bayesian modelling rising exponentially, may be dark for some time for realistic approaches. Ideally, we'd need a compelling foundation* which would suggest simple practical implementations, reasonable for practitioners.

Cédric Baudrit, Inés Couso, Didier Dubois (2007). Joint propagation of probability and possibility in risk analysis: towards a formal framework. Int. J. Approx. Reasoning 45, 82-105.

* No, I don't find Bayesian foundations compelling at all.


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